Heads-up Poker Odds: Probabilities, Matchups and Strategy

Heads-up Poker Odds: Probabilities, Matchups and Strategy

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Heads-up Poker Odds

Heads-up Poker Odds

Heads-up poker is a poker game played between just two players. It can happen when a bigger poker game is ending and only two players are left, or when two players are starting a game and decide to play against each other while waiting for more opponents. In one-on-one poker, it’s super important to know the heads-up poker odds. What matters most is understanding the chances of getting a winning hand compared to your opponent.

In most sit-and-go (SNG) poker tournaments, it’s a necessary stage; eventually, the one winner left has to play against only one opponent. Sometimes, players intentionally play heads-up, either in a cash game style or in an SNG format, where they compete for an agreed-upon amount of money. In bigger online poker platforms and certain tournaments, you might find larger heads-up competitions, usually in a shoot-out style. To keep things fair, players who finish at the same level of the tournament get paid the same amount, no matter their exact position.

If you prefer faster, more aggressive poker, heads-up might be your thing. It mainly applies to games like Texas Hold ‘Em and Omaha, where community cards and blinds are involved. You can play almost any poker game heads-up, but it’s most noticeable in these types where the community cards and blinds matter.

Heads-up Texas Hold ’em Poker Odds

This table shows the chances of winning in Texas Hold’em poker for different starting hands. It looks at all possible combinations of cards for each of the 169 starting hands. The percentages you see represent the probability of winning, tying, occurrence frequency, and cumulative occurrence. Here ‘o’ means offsuit and ‘s’ means suited.

Heads-up Poker Odds Chart

Ranks Hole Cards Expected Value (EV)    Win Rate (%) Tie Rate (%) Occurrence in Percentage Cumulative Percentage
1 AAo 0.70 84.93 0.54 0.45 0.45
2 KKo 0.64 82.11 0.55 0.45 0.90
3 QQo 0.59 79.63 0.58 0.45 1.35
4 JJo 0.54 77.15 0.63 0.45 1.80
5 TTo 0.50 74.66 0.70 0.45 2.26
6 99o 0.44 71.66 0.78 0.45 2.71
7 88o 0.38 68.71 0.89 0.45 3.16
8 AKs 0.34 66.21 1.65 0.30 3.46
9 77o 0.32 65.72 1.02 0.45 3.92
10 AQs 0.32 65.31 1.79 0.30 4.22
11 AJs 0.30 64.39 1.99 0.30 4.52
12 AKo 0.30 64.46 1.70 0.90 5.42
13 ATs 0.29 63.48 2.22 0.30 5.73
14 AQo 0.28 63.50 1.84 0.90 6.63
15 AJo 0.27 62.53 2.05 0.90 7.54
16 KQs 0.26 62.40 1.98 0.30 7.84
17 66o 0.26 62.70 1.16 0.45 8.29
18 A9s 0.25 61.50 2.54 0.30 8.59
19 ATo 0.25 61.56 2.30 0.90 9.50
20 KJs 0.25 61.47 2.18 0.30 9.80
21 A8s 0.23 60.50 2.87 0.30 10.10
22 KTs 0.23 60.58 2.40 0.30 10.40
23 KQo 0.22 60.43 2.04 0.90 11.31
24 A7s 0.21 59.38 3.19 0.30 11.61
25 A9o 0.21 59.44 2.64 0.90 12.51
26 KJo 0.21 59.44 2.25 0.90 13.42
27 55o 0.20 59.64 1.36 0.45 13.87
28 QJs 0.20 59.07 2.37 0.30 14.17
29 K9s 0.19 58.63 2.70 0.30 14.47
30 A5s 0.19 58.06 3.71 0.30 14.78
31 A6s 0.19 58.17 3.45 0.30 15.08
32 A8o 0.19 58.37 2.99 0.90 15.98
33 KTo 0.19 58.49 2.48 0.90 16.89
34 QTs 0.18 58.17 2.59 0.30 17.19
35 A4s 0.18 57.13 3.79 0.30 17.49
36 A7o 0.17 57.16 3.34 0.90 18.40
37 K8s 0.16 56.79 3.04 0.30 18.70
38 A3s 0.16 56.33 3.77 0.30 19.00
39 QJo 0.16 56.90 2.45 0.90 19.90
40 K9o 0.15 56.40 2.80 0.90 20.81
41 A5o 0.15 55.74 3.90 0.90 21.71
42 A6o 0.15 55.87 3.62 0.90 22.62
43 Q9s 0.15 56.22 2.88 0.30 22.92
44 K7s 0.15 55.84 3.38 0.30 23.22
45 JTs 0.15 56.15 2.74 0.30 23.52
46 A2s 0.14 55.50 3.74 0.30 23.83
47 QTo 0.14 55.94 2.68 0.90 24.73
48 44o 0.14 56.25 1.53 0.45 25.18
49 A4o 0.13 54.73 3.99 0.90 26.09
50 K6s 0.13 54.80 3.67 0.30 26.39
51 K8o 0.12 54.43 3.17 0.90 27.30
52 Q8s 0.12 54.41 3.20 0.30 27.60
53 A3o 0.11 53.85 3.97 0.90 28.50
54 K5s 0.11 53.83 3.91 0.30 28.80
55 J9s 0.11 54.11 3.10 0.30 29.11
56 Q9o 0.10 53.86 2.99 0.90 30.01
57 JTo 0.10 53.82 2.84 0.90 30.92
58 K7o 0.10 53.41 3.54 0.90 31.82
59 A2o 0.09 52.94 3.96 0.90 32.73
60 K4s 0.09 52.88 3.99 0.30 33.03
61 Q7s 0.08 52.52 3.55 0.30 33.33
62 K6o 0.08 52.29 3.85 0.90 34.23
63 K3s 0.08 52.07 3.96 0.30 34.53
64 T9s 0.08 52.37 3.30 0.30 34.84
65 J8s 0.08 52.31 3.40 0.30 35.14
66 33o 0.07 52.83 1.70 0.45 35.59
67 Q6s 0.07 51.67 3.86 0.30 35.89
68 Q8o 0.07 51.93 3.33 0.90 36.80
69 K5o 0.06 51.25 4.12 0.90 37.70
70 J9o 0.06 51.63 3.22 0.90 38.61
71 K2s 0.06 51.23 3.94 0.30 38.91
72 Q5s 0.05 50.71 4.11 0.30 39.21
73 T8s 0.04 50.50 3.65 0.30 39.51
74 K4o 0.04 50.22 4.20 0.90 40.42
75 J7s 0.04 50.45 3.74 0.30 40.72
76 Q4s 0.03 49.76 4.18 0.30 41.02
77 Q7o 0.03 49.90 3.72 0.90 41.93
78 T9o 0.03 49.81 3.43 0.90 42.83
79 J8o 0.02 49.71 3.55 0.90 43.74
80 K3o 0.02 49.33 4.18 0.90 44.64
81 Q6o 0.02 48.99 4.05 0.90 45.55
82 Q3s 0.02 48.93 4.16 0.30 45.85
83 98s 0.01 48.85 3.88 0.30 46.15
84 T7s 0.01 48.65 3.97 0.30 46.45
85 J6s 0.01 48.57 4.06 0.30 46.75
86 K2o 0.01 48.42 4.17 0.90 47.66
87 22o 0.00 49.38 1.89 0.45 48.11
88 Q2s 0.00 48.10 4.13 0.30 48.41
89 Q5o 0.00 47.95 4.32 0.90 49.32
90 J5s 0.00 47.82 4.33 0.30 49.62
91 T8o 0.00 47.81 3.80 0.90 50.52
92 J7o 0.00 47.72 3.91 0.90 51.43
93 Q4o -0.01 46.92 4.40 0.90 52.33
94 97s -0.01 46.99 4.25 0.30 52.63
95 J4s -0.01 46.86 4.40 0.30 52.94
96 T6s -0.02 46.80 4.28 0.30 53.24
97 J3s -0.03 46.04 4.37 0.30 53.54
98 Q3o -0.03 46.02 4.38 0.90 54.44
99 98o -0.03 46.06 4.05 0.90 55.35
100 87s -0.04 45.68 4.50 0.30 55.65
101 T7o -0.04 45.82 4.15 0.90 56.56
102 J6o -0.04 45.71 4.26 0.90 57.46
103 96s -0.05 45.15 4.55 0.30 57.76
104 J2s -0.05 45.20 4.35 0.30 58.06
105 Q2o -0.05 45.10 4.37 0.90 58.97
106 T5s -0.05 44.93 4.55 0.30 59.27
107 J5o -0.05 44.90 4.55 0.90 60.18
108 T4s -0.06 44.20 4.65 0.30 60.48
109 97o -0.07 44.07 4.45 0.90 61.38
110 86s -0.07 43.81 4.84 0.30 61.68
111 J4o -0.07 43.86 4.63 0.90 62.59
112 T6o -0.07 43.84 4.48 0.90 63.49
113 95s -0.08 43.31 4.81 0.30 63.80
114 T3s -0.08 43.37 4.62 0.30 64.10
115 76s -0.09 42.82 5.08 0.30 64.40
116 J3o -0.09 42.96 4.61 0.90 65.30
117 87o -0.09 42.69 4.71 0.90 66.21
118 T2s -0.10 42.54 4.59 0.30 66.51
119 85s -0.10 41.99 5.10 0.30 66.81
120 96o -0.11 42.10 4.77 0.90 67.72
121 J2o -0.11 42.04 4.59 0.90 68.62
122 T5o -0.11 41.85 4.78 0.90 69.53
123 94s -0.12 41.40 4.90 0.30 69.83
124 75s -0.12 40.97 5.39 0.30 70.13
125 T4o -0.12 41.05 4.89 0.90 71.04
126 93s -0.13 40.80 4.91 0.30 71.34
127 86o -0.13 40.69 5.08 0.90 72.24
128 65s -0.13 40.34 5.57 0.30 72.54
129 84s -0.14 40.10 5.19 0.30 72.85
130 95o -0.14 40.13 5.06 0.90 73.75
131 T3o -0.14 40.15 4.87 0.90 74.66
132 92s -0.15 39.97 4.88 0.30 74.96
133 76o -0.15 39.65 5.33 0.90 75.86
134 74s -0.16 39.10 5.48 0.30 76.16
135 T2o -0.16 39.23 4.85 0.90 77.07
136 54s -0.17 38.53 5.84 0.30 77.37
137 85o -0.17 38.74 5.37 0.90 78.28
138 64s -0.17 38.48 5.70 0.30 78.58
139 83s -0.18 38.28 5.18 0.30 78.88
140 94o -0.18 38.08 5.17 0.90 79.78
141 75o -0.18 37.67 5.67 0.90 80.69
142 82s -0.19 37.67 5.18 0.30 80.99
143 73s -0.19 37.30 5.46 0.30 81.29
144 93o -0.19 37.42 5.18 0.90 82.20
145 65o -0.20 37.01 5.86 0.90 83.10
146 53s -0.20 36.75 5.86 0.30 83.40
147 63s -0.20 36.68 5.69 0.30 83.71
148 84o -0.21 36.70 5.47 0.90 84.61
149 92o -0.21 36.51 5.16 0.90 85.52
150 43s -0.22 35.72 5.82 0.30 85.82
151 74o -0.22 35.66 5.77 0.90 86.72
152 72s -0.23 35.43 5.43 0.30 87.02
153 54o -0.23 35.07 6.16 0.90 87.93
154 64o -0.23 35.00 6.01 0.90 88.83
155 52s -0.24 34.92 5.83 0.30 89.14
156 62s -0.24 34.83 5.66 0.30 89.44
157 83o -0.25 34.74 5.46 0.90 90.34
158 42s -0.26 33.91 5.82 0.30 90.64
159 82o -0.26 34.08 5.48 0.90 91.55
160 73o -0.26 33.71 5.76 0.90 92.45
161 53o -0.27 33.16 6.19 0.90 93.36
162 63o -0.27 33.06 6.01 0.90 94.26
163 32s -0.28 33.09 5.78 0.30 94.57
164 43o -0.29 32.06 6.15 0.90 95.47
165 72o -0.30 31.71 5.74 0.90 96.38
166 52o -0.31 31.19 6.18 0.90 97.28
167 62o -0.31 31.07 5.99 0.90 98.19
168 42o -0.33 30.11 6.16 0.90 99.09
169 32o -0.35 29.23 6.12 0.90 100.00

You can also use the heads-up poker odds calculator to find out the odds.

Match-ups of Various Poker Hands

Pair vs. Pair:

  • Kc-Kd vs. 9h-9s: The higher pair is an 80 per cent favourite. The equity might increase by one or two per cent if the underpair didn’t have clean suits or the maximum number of straight-outs.

Pair vs. Overcards:

  • 6d-6h vs. Ac-Ks: This is considered a coin flip but leans slightly toward the pair with a 55 to 45 per cent situation.

Pair vs. Undercards:

  • 10c-10d vs. 8s-5h: The pair usually stands as a 5-to-1 favourite, varying depending on whether the undercards are suited or connectors.

Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard:

  • 10h-10s vs. Jd-9c: The pair is approximately a 70 per cent favourite. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs while the favorite has redraws.

Pair vs. Overcard and one of that pair:

  • Kc-Kd vs. As-Kh: The pair of cowboys (K-K) holds a 70-30 per cent situation against big slick (A-K), creating a 2.3-to-1 disadvantage for the A-K hand.

Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair:

  • Qc-Qd vs. Kh-10s: The non-pair needs to hit its undercard twice, and make a straight, or flush to win. The pair is better than a 90 per cent favourite, slightly better than 10-to-1 odds.

Pair vs. Lower or Higher-suited connectors:

  • Jd-Jh vs. 7s-6s: The pair is a strong favourite against middle-suited connectors (7-6 suited).
  • 8h-8s vs. Qd-Jd: A pair of eights against Q-J suited is a real coin flip situation, a fifty-fifty proposition.

Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non-Pairs):

  • Kh-Qc vs. 9s-5d: Two higher cards are usually a 65% favourite.
  • Ac-7s vs. Qh-9d: High card gives a marginal edge, about 57%.
  • Kh-Qd vs. Tc-6s: A high card/low card combination gets an edge against a middle card combination.
  • Ah-Jd vs. Jc-8s: A-J holds a strong position, leaving J-8 with three outs.
  • Ac-Kd vs. Ah-9s: The high kicker (K) provides a significant edge.

Heads-up Poker Odds Strategy

In a heads-up situation, playing aggressively with your hole cards becomes crucial. There are certain hands, like J♦️3♣️, that you should avoid betting pre-flop at the start of a poker tournament as they tend to lose more than 50% of the time against other hands, even without knowing your opponent’s cards.

When facing off one-on-one, your view on playable hands needs a shift. Connected off-suit cards become viable pre-flop, while hands like J♦️3♣️ or 9♦️4♣️ might enter consideration based on factors like your opponent’s style and chip stack.

Understanding your opponent’s mindset is key. Some players shove regardless of their cards, while others raise blinds irrespective of their hand quality. Conservative opponents wait for premium hands before acting.

Against a conservative opponent, an aggressive approach to preflop hands could be effective.

Aggressive play involves open raising, like betting three times the big blind with strong cards like any ace or face card. This aggressive strategy holds true whether your opponent is conservative or doubling the big blind.

Another effective strategy involves catching aggressive opponents off-guard with subtle plays. Despite a reduction in starting hand options, allowing an aggressive opponent to set the betting pace might create a false sense of control.

For instance, starting with a hand like K♣ K♥️ is fantastic in a heads-up scenario. Allowing the opponent to lead the betting before a flop of lower cards might lure them into a bigger pot.

If a conservative player places a minimal three big blind bet preflop, an aggressive player might sense a strong hand and fold. Letting an aggressive opponent decide whether to check or bet through the flop can yield significant gains for the conservative player. 

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