ICM Poker
ICM, or Independent Chip Model, is a method used in poker tournaments to calculate the monetary value of a player’s chip stack. Unlike cash games, where each chip has a fixed value, tournament chips fluctuate in value depending on various factors.
In a tournament, players accumulate chips as the game progresses. However, by the end, the winner who holds all the chips doesn’t take home the entire prize pool. This is where ICM comes in, providing a way to understand the true value of each player’s stack.
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) helps players determine their equity in a tournament. It takes into account not just your own chip stack, but also the chip stacks of other players and the overall prize distribution. This model was originally developed by David Harville in 1973 for horse racing and was later adapted for poker by Mason Malmuth in 1987. For those wanting to experience super amazing poker games, try BLITZPOKER. It isn’t just another online poker site; it’s where excitement meets opportunity by turning every hand into a thrilling adventure with real money rewards waiting at the end.
What Exactly Is ICM In Poker?
An ICM (Independent Chip Model) calculation looks at the odds of all possible finishing positions for players. This model helps figure out the value of chips in a tournament. It’s useful when payouts are top-heavy or near the bubble or final table.
How does ICM work in poker?
ICM looks at two things: the payout structure and the stack sizes of all players left in the game. It combines these factors to give each player a value. It calculates the chances for each player to finish in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and so on. It then multiplies these chances with the payouts for each position.
It’s tricky to calculate the chances of finishing in second or third place, so a computer is needed for that. But to find the chances of a player finishing in first place, you can divide the number of chips a player has by the total chips in play.
Why do poker players use ICM?
It’s not a standard rule in tournament poker, so why do players use it? Let’s focus on No-limit Holdem, the most widely played poker tournament game worldwide.
In poker, our goal is always to optimize our play to maximize profits. This optimization revolves around payouts. When payouts influence decisions, the game’s dynamics change. Therefore, the optimal strategy for playing NLH shifts based on position or stack depth.
Ignoring payouts means ignoring this change in dynamics. Players who fail to consider payouts won’t adjust their strategy and will miss out on expected value (EV), especially in critical scenarios like deep tournaments or Final Tables.
How ICM Affects Tournament Decisions?
ICM considerations impact every phase of a poker tournament, starting from the initial deal of cards right up to the heads-up play.
These considerations become even more crucial as you approach the prize payouts and remain significant throughout the ITM stage.
Each time the prize money increases during the tournament, your potential winnings also increase. This means that simply staying in the tournament adds real money to your poker bankroll. Conversely, getting knocked out prevents you from advancing further and increasing your earnings from that particular tournament.
While some veteran poker players in the past emphasized going all-out for first place and disregarding ICM, most modern professionals agree that understanding ICM is vital for successful tournament strategy.
Here are a few common adjustments in ICM strategy during the late stages of a tournament to enhance your overall expected value (EV).
The Concept Of cEV and ₹EV
Equity can be thought of in two ways: cEV and ₹EV.
Firstly, chip expected value (cEV) represents our actual equity in a pot. cEV helps calculate equity in a cash game hand. It’s the same as the equity you get by counting your outs and figuring out the chance of winning a hand.
On the other hand, ₹EV is a concept for tournament poker. ₹EV tells us how much the chips we win in a hand are worth in a tournament. To find the exact ₹EV of any situation, we need to look at the prize pool distribution, the size of all other stacks in play, and so on.
Luckily, we don’t need to know the exact ₹EV to make good tournament decisions. Useful ICM tools can help solve these situations for us now. ICM is mainly relevant in the late stages of a tournament, usually at the bubble or final table. These tools help us understand the difference between cEV and ₹EV. Once you learn about ICM in poker, you’ll see its big impact in large field MTTs and how it changes the ranges we should play in different situations.
ICM Formula for Independent Chip Model Calculation
Here’s how you calculate your tournament equity using the ICM formula:
- First, find out how many chips each player has.
- Calculate this in relation to the total number of chips in play: Chip Stack / Total Chips.
- This calculation shows each player’s chance of winning the tournament.
- Determine all possible outcomes for where each player might place.
- Start with the probability of each scenario’s winner finishing in 1st place.
- Then, calculate the likelihood of 2nd place by multiplying the winner’s chances of winning (based on their chip share) by (2nd place chips / total remaining chips, including those for 2nd place).
- For tournaments with more than three players, combine the probabilities for 1st and 2nd places (and so on) before calculating for subsequent positions.
- Relate these equities to the prize money for each paid position to find the expected value (EV).
- Calculate the EV in monetary terms for each scenario.
- Add these values together.
- Divide the total by the remaining prize pool to determine each player’s current EV in Indian rupees.
ICM Poker Strategies
Apply More Pressure
When you find yourself with a large stack late in a tournament, leverage the ICM dynamics to your advantage. Since you’re not at risk of elimination, target middle and small stacks who are cautious about busting out before others.
By applying strategic pressure, you force them into tighter playing ranges, allowing you to expand your chip lead effectively. Master late-game poker by navigating ICM with smart folds, assertive plays against smaller stacks, and strategic aggression as the big stack. Make calculated decisions to enhance your tournament success.
Fold More Often
In tournament poker, the independent chip model requires frequent folding, especially in late-game situations. While it might feel repetitive, folding is often the best choice, especially when you’re in the middle of the pack with smaller stacks likely to bust out before you. If your expected value from calling is only marginally positive, the actual value of the chips you could lose outweighs what you might gain.
Consider your real EV carefully before committing your entire stack, and only make calls that significantly improve your situation. Unlike cash games, where folding has a neutral impact, folding late in tournaments can positively impact your position by moving you up in the payout structure.
Play More Small Pots
In late-game tournament poker, particularly when you’re among the middle stacks, focus on playing smaller pots and winning without reaching a showdown. Winning the tournament isn’t about a single decision but a series of smart moves, especially when you’re managing 20-30 big blinds. Avoid unnecessary clashes with larger stacks and instead apply pressure on smaller ones to improve your overall tournament EV.